Why No Recession but Market Worse than ever been

Charlie Greenman
1 min readJan 24, 2024

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Here is the outline of why this is happening

  1. Higher than usual inflation
  2. GDP in reverse due to billions being money being spent on infrastructure AI instead of humans
  3. AI making is so less urgency for hiring humans/human capital
  4. Causing powder kegs with VCs due to uncertainty x AI
  5. AI causing existing tech strategies to change, causing a large loss of jobs
  6. Post covid is a remote economy. 4% of the economy is double dipping, meaning high performers are now taking new jobs

The economy is getting stronger so no quote-on-quote recession but the market is the worst it’s ever been.

Important to note

What this theory means, is that next year will experience hypergrowth.

  1. AI Infrastructure is no longer needed, instead human capital.
    2. Inflation will quiet down.
    3. All double-dipped jobs will quiet down. Only so many people are willing to work 80 hours a week. Only possible to do it for so long.

One Wild Card

The one wild card here is the unknown of AI x VC. Most likely will continue to next year, meaning VC money will still be relatively stagnant, or piped into larger ideas.

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