Why No Recession but Market Worse than ever been
1 min readJan 24, 2024
Here is the outline of why this is happening
- Higher than usual inflation
- GDP in reverse due to billions being money being spent on infrastructure AI instead of humans
- AI making is so less urgency for hiring humans/human capital
- Causing powder kegs with VCs due to uncertainty x AI
- AI causing existing tech strategies to change, causing a large loss of jobs
- Post covid is a remote economy. 4% of the economy is double dipping, meaning high performers are now taking new jobs
The economy is getting stronger so no quote-on-quote recession but the market is the worst it’s ever been.
Important to note
What this theory means, is that next year will experience hypergrowth.
- AI Infrastructure is no longer needed, instead human capital.
2. Inflation will quiet down.
3. All double-dipped jobs will quiet down. Only so many people are willing to work 80 hours a week. Only possible to do it for so long.
One Wild Card
The one wild card here is the unknown of AI x VC. Most likely will continue to next year, meaning VC money will still be relatively stagnant, or piped into larger ideas.